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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Maricopa weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 101° in Maricopa today. Tomorrow looks clear around 101°, with a 0% chance of rain.

101°76°
101°74°
100°71°
100°79°
100°76°
99°78°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
101°
Mostly clear
Today 101°·Low 76°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
101°
Clear
Today 101°·Low 76°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Mostly clear
Today 100°·Low 75°·Rain 2%
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Maricopa weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Maricopa…

Maricopa weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Maricopa swings 70°F across the year, from 110°F highs in July to 40°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 7 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
110°F average high
Coldest month
January
40°F average low
Wettest month
January
7 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
49,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Maricopa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Maricopa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Maricopa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
101° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
101° 74°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
100° 71°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
100° 79°
models agree
Tue
Clear
100° 76°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
99° 78°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
100° 81°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
99° 82°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
101° 82°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
103° 83°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
103° 83°
±8°
Tue
Clear
106° 85°
models agree
Wed
Clear
102° 82°
models agree
Thu
Clear
95° 78°
±12°

Maricopa, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 110°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 40°F), with roughly 7 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Maricopa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Maricopa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
63°
40°
Feb
67°
44°
Mar
72°
48°
Apr
86°
56°
May
94°
67°
Jun
104°
76°
Jul
110°
86°
Aug
106°
83°
Sep
102°
75°
Oct
93°
65°
Nov
75°
49°
Dec
69°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Maricopa?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F93±2.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F88±3.8 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°100° to 101°±1%1% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±1°101° to 102°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±3°99° to 102°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°99° to 102°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°97° to 101°±5%0% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Maricopa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:30
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Maricopa today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Maricopa today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Maricopa today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Maricopa and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Maricopa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Maricopa (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Maricopa?
July is typically the warmest month in Maricopa, with average highs around 110°F.
How cold does Maricopa get?
The coldest month in Maricopa is January, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Maricopa get?
Maricopa sees roughly 7 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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