Skip to main content
One weather site to rule them all
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USMelbourne
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Melbourne weather

Loading live data…

Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 85° in Melbourne today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 85°, with a 99% chance of rain.

85°75°
85°75°
85°74°
85°74°
87°74°
86°75°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Showers
Today 85°·Low 78°·Rain 42%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Drizzle
Today 83°·Low 76°·Rain 42%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Thunderstorm
Today 85°·Low 72°·Rain 94%
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.

Melbourne weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Melbourne…

Melbourne weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Melbourne swings 32°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 57°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 57 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
57°F average low
Wettest month
June
57 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, November and December
Residents
85,000
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Melbourne and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Melbourne hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Melbourne 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
85° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
85° 75°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
85° 74°
models agree
Mon
Showers
85° 74°
±5°
Tue
Showers
87° 74°
±6°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
86° 75°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
85° 75°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
85° 75°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
86° 75°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
85° 74°
±5°
Mon
Showers
83° 74°
±6°
Tue
Thunderstorm
85° 71°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
83° 72°
±7°
Thu
Thunderstorm
80° 73°
±4°

Melbourne, Florida (FL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 57°F), with roughly 57 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Melbourne right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Melbourne climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
72°
57°
Feb
75°
59°
Mar
79°
64°
Apr
81°
66°
May
85°
71°
Jun
87°
74°
Jul
89°
76°
Aug
89°
77°
Sep
86°
75°
Oct
81°
72°
Nov
77°
66°
Dec
72°
60°

Which forecast is most accurate in Melbourne?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
77±2.3°F93±2.1 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
53
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F84±4.9 mph032% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…

One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°83° to 85°±52%42% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±3°83° to 86°±77%22% to 99% chance
Sun±3°85° to 87°±40%56% to 96% chance
Mon±5°83° to 88°±25%71% to 96% chance
Tue±6°85° to 92°±18%78% to 96% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Melbourne

today, local time
Sunrise
07:09
Sunset
19:23
Daylight
12h 14m

Common questions

What's the weather in Melbourne today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Melbourne today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Melbourne today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Melbourne and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Melbourne?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Melbourne (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the American at 53. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Melbourne?
July is typically the warmest month in Melbourne, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Melbourne get?
The coldest month in Melbourne is January, when overnight lows average about 57°F.
How much rain does Melbourne get?
Melbourne sees roughly 57 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather