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Every US forecast, compared
CheckWeather US›Merced

Merced weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Clear
Feels 89° · Wind 12 mph · Humidity 27%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Clear
Feels 88° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 26%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Clear
Feels 90° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 18%

Latest for Merced: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 93° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 92° Clear · European (ECMWF): 96° Clear.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Merced and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

7-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Merced, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 105°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 39°F), with roughly 23 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Merced right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

Merced climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
56°
41°
Feb
58°
39°
Mar
61°
43°
Apr
71°
48°
May
81°
55°
Jun
92°
62°
Jul
105°
71°
Aug
99°
69°
Sep
91°
63°
Oct
83°
56°
Nov
66°
44°
Dec
60°
42°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
Behind Apple Weather, Windy
88
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph8592% hitECMWF — European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
Behind Windy & many free apps
74
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F92±2.6 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 40 cities. Lower error means a higher score. The apps you know (AccuWeather, Apple Weather, The Weather Channel) are built on these models.

Common questions

What's the weather in Merced today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Merced today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Merced today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Merced and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Merced?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Merced forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Merced?
Jul is typically the warmest month in Merced, with average highs around 105°F.
How cold does Merced get?
The coldest month in Merced is Feb, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Merced get?
Merced sees roughly 23 in of precipitation a year, with Jan usually the wettest month.

The forecasts Americans check

The two biggest apps keep their model a secret, so we can't show their numbers, only link you to them. The National Weather Service is public, so its data sits right in the comparison above.

NWSNational Weather Service
Open model · shown above ✓AWAccuWeather
Closed model · open ↗↗TWCThe Weather Channel
Closed model · open ↗↗

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