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CheckWeather USMiddletown
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°F

Middletown weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 81° in Middletown today. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 70°, with a 2% chance of rain.

81°70°
70°61°
73°62°
69°61°
65°58°
65°56°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Light drizzle
Today 81°·Low 70°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 70°·Rain 6%
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 71°·Rain 53%
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Middletown weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Middletown weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Middletown swings 56°F across the year, from 87°F highs in July to 31°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 49 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
87°F average high
Coldest month
February
31°F average low
Wettest month
March
49 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
February
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
65,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Middletown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Middletown hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Middletown 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
81° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
70° 61°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
73° 62°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
69° 61°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
65° 58°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
65° 56°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
64° 56°
±4°
Fri
Drizzle
66° 55°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
68° 57°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
71° 57°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 57°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
74° 60°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
80° 62°
models agree
Thu
Rain
69° 56°
models agree

Middletown, New Jersey (NJ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 31°F), with roughly 49 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Middletown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Middletown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
45°
33°
Feb
47°
31°
Mar
52°
36°
Apr
63°
45°
May
71°
53°
Jun
81°
63°
Jul
87°
70°
Aug
82°
67°
Sep
76°
62°
Oct
68°
52°
Nov
55°
41°
Dec
46°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Middletown?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
84±1.6°F94±1.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F95±1.7 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree81° to 81°±47%6% to 53% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree70° to 70°±2%0% to 2% chance
Sun±4°70° to 75°±9%78% to 87% chance
Mon±2°69° to 70°±1%77% to 78% chance
Tue±1°64° to 65°±24%8% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Middletown

today, local time
Sunrise
06:40
Sunset
19:00
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Middletown today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Middletown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Middletown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Middletown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Middletown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Middletown (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Middletown?
July is typically the warmest month in Middletown, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Middletown get?
The coldest month in Middletown is February, when overnight lows average about 31°F.
How much rain does Middletown get?
Middletown sees roughly 49 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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