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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Minnetonka weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 62° in Minnetonka today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 64°, with a 78% chance of rain.

62°59°
64°58°
68°54°
65°52°
65°49°
66°48°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±7°Sundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
61°
Heavy rain
Today 61°·Low 59°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
61°
Rain
Today 61°·Low 58°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
62°
Rain
Today 62°·Low 59°·Rain 100%
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Minnetonka weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Minnetonka weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Minnetonka swings 68°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 39 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
June
39 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
52,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Minnetonka and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Minnetonka hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Minnetonka 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
62° 59°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
64° 58°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
68° 54°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
65° 52°
±5°
Tue
Partly cloudy
65° 49°
±7°
Wed
Mostly clear
66° 48°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
68° 52°
±11°
Fri
Cloudy
71° 53°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
69° 56°
±5°
Sun
Drizzle
65° 56°
±7°
Mon
Light drizzle
61° 53°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
61° 46°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
64° 48°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
71° 50°
±8°

Minnetonka, Minnesota (MN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Minnetonka right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Minnetonka climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
36°
16°
Mar
40°
22°
Apr
54°
36°
May
72°
51°
Jun
80°
62°
Jul
82°
64°
Aug
81°
64°
Sep
78°
60°
Oct
62°
46°
Nov
44°
32°
Dec
34°
23°

Which forecast is most accurate in Minnetonka?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
76
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F98±0.7 mph4268% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F96±1.2 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°61° to 62°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±7°60° to 67°±55%23% to 78% chance
Sun±2°67° to 69°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±5°62° to 67°models agree4% to 4% chance
Tue±7°61° to 68°±1%3% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Minnetonka

today, local time
Sunrise
06:56
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Minnetonka today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Minnetonka today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Minnetonka today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Minnetonka and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Minnetonka?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Minnetonka (CheckWeather Score 76/100), ahead of the American at 70. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Minnetonka?
July is typically the warmest month in Minnetonka, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Minnetonka get?
The coldest month in Minnetonka is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Minnetonka get?
Minnetonka sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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