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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Pensacola weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 90° in Pensacola today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 93°, with a 24% chance of rain.

90°72°
93°73°
92°76°
90°76°
90°75°
91°75°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Clear
Today 89°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
89°
Clear
Today 89°·Low 72°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
90°
Clear
Today 90°·Low 71°·Rain 0%
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Pensacola weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Pensacola weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Pensacola swings 44°F across the year, from 92°F highs in August to 48°F lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 58 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
92°F average high
Coldest month
January
48°F average low
Wettest month
November
58 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
54,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Pensacola and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Pensacola hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Pensacola 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
90° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
93° 73°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
92° 76°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
90° 76°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
90° 75°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
91° 75°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
90° 76°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
89° 74°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
88° 73°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
88° 71°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
85° 73°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
87° 74°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
86° 70°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
83° 68°
models agree

Pensacola, Florida (FL) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 92°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 48°F), with roughly 58 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Pensacola right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Pensacola climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
48°
Feb
66°
53°
Mar
69°
57°
Apr
73°
62°
May
80°
70°
Jun
86°
75°
Jul
88°
77°
Aug
92°
79°
Sep
85°
74°
Oct
78°
64°
Nov
71°
58°
Dec
63°
50°

Which forecast is most accurate in Pensacola?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
86±1.4°F93±2.1 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
56
/100rank #2
74±2.6°F88±3.8 mph1352% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°89° to 90°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±2°93° to 95°±19%5% to 24% chance
Sun±4°91° to 94°±45%41% to 86% chance
Mon±1°90° to 91°±54%26% to 80% chance
Tue±2°89° to 91°±51%24% to 75% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Pensacola

today, local time
Sunrise
06:35
Sunset
18:50
Daylight
12h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Pensacola today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Pensacola today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Pensacola today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Pensacola and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Pensacola?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Pensacola (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 56. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Pensacola?
August is typically the warmest month in Pensacola, with average highs around 92°F.
How cold does Pensacola get?
The coldest month in Pensacola is January, when overnight lows average about 48°F.
How much rain does Pensacola get?
Pensacola sees roughly 58 in of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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