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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Roanoke weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Roanoke's high today between 88° and 93°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 80°, with a 61% chance of rain.

90°71°
80°70°
85°68°
79°67°
68°63°
63°59°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
90°
Drizzle
Today 90°·Low 72°·Rain 11%
AmericanNOAA GFS
88°
Cloudy
Today 88°·Low 71°·Rain 11%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Thunderstorm
Today 93°·Low 71°·Rain 76%
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Roanoke weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Roanoke weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Roanoke swings 58°F across the year, from 90°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 39 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
September
39 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and October
Residents
100,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Roanoke and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Roanoke hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Roanoke 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
90° 71°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
80° 70°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
85° 68°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
79° 67°
±8°
Tue
Light rain
68° 63°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
63° 59°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
69° 58°
±10°
Fri
Light drizzle
71° 58°
±9°
Sat
Light drizzle
72° 57°
±11°
Sun
Mostly clear
74° 52°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 53°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
74° 55°
±8°
Wed
Rain
77° 58°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
74° 52°
±15°

Roanoke, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Roanoke right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Roanoke climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
32°
Feb
56°
34°
Mar
61°
38°
Apr
71°
46°
May
76°
55°
Jun
84°
61°
Jul
90°
68°
Aug
87°
65°
Sep
79°
59°
Oct
72°
48°
Nov
60°
40°
Dec
50°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Roanoke?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±1.1 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F95±1.5 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°88° to 93°±65%11% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±5°78° to 83°±50%11% to 61% chance
Sun±3°84° to 87°±43%54% to 97% chance
Mon±8°75° to 82°±10%65% to 75% chance
Tue±3°67° to 69°±16%70% to 86% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Roanoke

today, local time
Sunrise
07:04
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Roanoke today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Roanoke today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Roanoke today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Roanoke and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Roanoke?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Roanoke (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Roanoke?
July is typically the warmest month in Roanoke, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Roanoke get?
The coldest month in Roanoke is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Roanoke get?
Roanoke sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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