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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Royal Oak weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Royal Oak today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 65°, with a 100% chance of rain.

73°56°
65°57°
66°59°
64°55°
63°52°
60°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±9°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
71°
Cloudy
Today 71°·Low 56°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 55°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
73°
Cloudy
Today 73°·Low 57°·Rain 12%
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Royal Oak weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Royal Oak weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Royal Oak swings 59°F across the year, from 83°F highs in July to 24°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 38 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
24°F average low
Wettest month
July
38 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
59,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Royal Oak and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Royal Oak hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Royal Oak 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
73° 56°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
65° 57°
models agree
Sun
Rain
66° 59°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
64° 55°
±9°
Tue
Cloudy
63° 52°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
60° 54°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
62° 55°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
68° 55°
±9°
Sat
Mostly clear
71° 53°
±9°
Sun
Clear
71° 54°
±8°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 55°
±11°
Tue
Showers
67° 54°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
60° 50°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
66° 49°
±6°

Royal Oak, Michigan (MI) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 24°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Royal Oak right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Royal Oak climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
24°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
48°
30°
Apr
60°
39°
May
72°
49°
Jun
80°
59°
Jul
83°
63°
Aug
80°
61°
Sep
76°
58°
Oct
64°
46°
Nov
50°
35°
Dec
41°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Royal Oak?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F97±0.9 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
67
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F94±1.8 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°71° to 74°±7%5% to 12% chance
Tomorrow±1°64° to 65°±42%58% to 100% chance
Sun±5°64° to 70°±8%82% to 90% chance
Mon±9°61° to 70°±8%6% to 14% chance
Tue±4°61° to 65°±13%14% to 27% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Royal Oak

today, local time
Sunrise
07:15
Sunset
19:36
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Royal Oak today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Royal Oak today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Royal Oak today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Royal Oak and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Royal Oak?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Royal Oak (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 67. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Royal Oak?
July is typically the warmest month in Royal Oak, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Royal Oak get?
The coldest month in Royal Oak is January, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Royal Oak get?
Royal Oak sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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