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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

San Mateo weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 75° in San Mateo today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 75°, with a 1% chance of rain.

75°56°
75°57°
70°57°
72°59°
76°58°
86°58°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
75°
Partly cloudy
Today 75°·Low 57°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Fog
Today 76°·Low 56°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 54°·Rain 0%
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San Mateo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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San Mateo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

San Mateo swings 26°F across the year, from 71°F highs in July to 45°F lows in February, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 29 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
71°F average high
Coldest month
February
45°F average low
Wettest month
January
29 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, June and July
Residents
104,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around San Mateo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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San Mateo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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San Mateo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
75° 56°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
75° 57°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
70° 57°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 59°
±4°
Tue
Partly cloudy
76° 58°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
86° 58°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
83° 63°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
79° 60°
±8°
Sat
Partly cloudy
77° 60°
±15°
Sun
Partly cloudy
77° 59°
±16°
Mon
Mostly clear
78° 58°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
76° 59°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
71° 57°
±9°
Thu
Clear
72° 57°
models agree

San Mateo, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 71°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 45°F), with roughly 29 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for San Mateo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

San Mateo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
56°
47°
Feb
55°
45°
Mar
56°
47°
Apr
60°
49°
May
64°
52°
Jun
68°
54°
Jul
71°
58°
Aug
70°
59°
Sep
70°
59°
Oct
71°
59°
Nov
61°
53°
Dec
57°
50°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F96±1.2 mph8491% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F93±2.3 mph4972% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°74° to 76°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°74° to 77°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±6°67° to 74°models agree2% to 2% chance
Mon±4°70° to 74°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±8°72° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in San Mateo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:53
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in San Mateo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for San Mateo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in San Mateo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for San Mateo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for San Mateo?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the San Mateo forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in San Mateo?
July is typically the warmest month in San Mateo, with average highs around 71°F.
How cold does San Mateo get?
The coldest month in San Mateo is February, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does San Mateo get?
San Mateo sees roughly 29 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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