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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

State College weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in State College today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 69°, with a 10% chance of rain.

76°61°
69°53°
70°61°
65°52°
58°51°
57°49°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaysplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Cloudy
Today 76°·Low 59°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
75°
Cloudy
Today 75°·Low 61°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
77°
Cloudy
Today 77°·Low 61°·Rain 39%
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State College weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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State College weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

State College swings 59°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 26°F lows in February, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 38 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
February
26°F average low
Wettest month
January
38 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
42,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around State College and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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State College hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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State College 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
76° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
69° 53°
±5°
Sun
Rain
70° 61°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
65° 52°
±5°
Tue
Light rain
58° 51°
±7°
Wed
Drizzle
57° 49°
±7°
Thu
Drizzle
61° 50°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
66° 49°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
68° 45°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
66° 49°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
69° 51°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
69° 49°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
66° 51°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
61° 46°
models agree

State College, Pennsylvania (PA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 26°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for State College right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

State College climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
27°
Feb
45°
26°
Mar
49°
30°
Apr
62°
40°
May
71°
48°
Jun
79°
57°
Jul
85°
63°
Aug
80°
60°
Sep
73°
54°
Oct
63°
44°
Nov
50°
34°
Dec
41°
28°

Which forecast is most accurate in State College?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
93±0.7°F96±1.3 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°75° to 77°±36%3% to 39% chance
Tomorrow±5°66° to 71°models agree10% to 10% chance
Sun±4°68° to 72°±8%92% to 100% chance
Mon±5°62° to 67°±14%24% to 38% chance
Tue±7°54° to 61°±9%49% to 58% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in State College

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
19:15
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in State College today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for State College today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in State College today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for State College and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for State College?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for State College (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in State College?
July is typically the warmest month in State College, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does State College get?
The coldest month in State College is February, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does State College get?
State College sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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