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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Stillwater weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Stillwater's high today between 95° and 99°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 98°, with a 7% chance of rain.

97°75°
98°76°
92°72°
83°69°
80°63°
81°60°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaysplit ±10°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Clear
Today 98°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Mostly clear
Today 99°·Low 74°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Mostly clear
Today 95°·Low 75°·Rain 4%
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Stillwater weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Stillwater…

Stillwater weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Stillwater swings 65°F across the year, from 94°F highs in August to 29°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 35 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
94°F average high
Coldest month
January
29°F average low
Wettest month
May
35 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, October and November
Residents
49,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Stillwater and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Stillwater hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Stillwater 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
97° 75°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
98° 76°
±4°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
92° 72°
±10°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
83° 69°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
80° 63°
±8°
Wed
Mostly clear
81° 60°
±10°
Thu
Light drizzle
82° 63°
±12°
Fri
Light drizzle
78° 66°
±9°
Sat
Partly cloudy
81° 65°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
84° 67°
±5°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
81° 64°
±14°
Tue
Clear
77° 59°
±6°
Wed
Partly cloudy
81° 58°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
86° 65°
models agree

Stillwater, Oklahoma (OK) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 94°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 29°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Stillwater right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Stillwater climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
29°
Feb
57°
37°
Mar
64°
43°
Apr
72°
52°
May
81°
61°
Jun
90°
71°
Jul
93°
74°
Aug
94°
75°
Sep
87°
67°
Oct
76°
57°
Nov
62°
44°
Dec
54°
37°

Which forecast is most accurate in Stillwater?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F94±1.9 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°95° to 99°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tomorrow±4°96° to 100°±5%2% to 7% chance
Sun±10°87° to 97°±8%47% to 55% chance
Mon±4°81° to 84°±18%25% to 43% chance
Tue±8°76° to 84°±6%0% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Stillwater

today, local time
Sunrise
07:13
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Stillwater today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Stillwater today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Stillwater today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Stillwater and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Stillwater?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Stillwater (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Stillwater?
August is typically the warmest month in Stillwater, with average highs around 94°F.
How cold does Stillwater get?
The coldest month in Stillwater is January, when overnight lows average about 29°F.
How much rain does Stillwater get?
Stillwater sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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