Surprise weather
Loading live data…Clear,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Surprise's high today between 97° and 101°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 101°, with a 0% chance of rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Surprise weather alerts and warnings
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisoriesChecking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Surprise…
Surprise weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsSurprise swings 69°F across the year, from 111°F highs in July to 42°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 8 in of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Surprise and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Surprise hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Surprise 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitSurprise, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 111°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 8 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Surprise right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Surprise climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical yearWhich forecast is most accurate in Surprise?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.