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CheckWeather USToms River
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°F

Toms River weather

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Partly cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Toms River's high today between 81° and 85°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 71°, with a 4% chance of rain.

82°69°
71°62°
75°61°
70°61°
66°59°
65°58°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±7°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Partly cloudy
Today 82°·Low 69°·Rain 9%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 68°·Rain 9%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Light drizzle
Today 85°·Low 70°·Rain 75%
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Toms River weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Toms River weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Toms River swings 53°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 32°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 49 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
February
32°F average low
Wettest month
March
49 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
89,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Toms River and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Toms River hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Toms River 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
82° 69°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
71° 62°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
75° 61°
±7°
Mon
Light rain
70° 61°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
66° 59°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
65° 58°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
64° 57°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
68° 55°
±7°
Sat
Cloudy
70° 56°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
72° 56°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
72° 56°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
76° 60°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
80° 64°
models agree
Thu
Rain
70° 57°
±5°

Toms River, New Jersey (NJ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 32°F), with roughly 49 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Toms River right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Toms River climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
33°
Feb
47°
32°
Mar
53°
37°
Apr
62°
46°
May
68°
53°
Jun
79°
63°
Jul
85°
70°
Aug
82°
67°
Sep
76°
63°
Oct
69°
51°
Nov
57°
41°
Dec
47°
35°

Which forecast is most accurate in Toms River?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F92±2.4 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
56
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F94±1.9 mph045% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°81° to 85°±66%9% to 75% chance
Tomorrow±2°70° to 72°±1%3% to 4% chance
Sun±7°72° to 79°±7%66% to 73% chance
Mon±3°68° to 71°±8%66% to 74% chance
Tue±3°65° to 67°±13%21% to 34% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Toms River

today, local time
Sunrise
06:40
Sunset
19:00
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Toms River today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Toms River today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Toms River today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Toms River and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Toms River?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Toms River (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 56. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Toms River?
July is typically the warmest month in Toms River, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Toms River get?
The coldest month in Toms River is February, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Toms River get?
Toms River sees roughly 49 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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