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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Victoria weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 92° in Victoria today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 96°, with a 25% chance of rain.

92°76°
96°74°
96°74°
96°77°
97°77°
96°77°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Drizzle
Today 93°·Low 76°·Rain 11%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Cloudy
Today 92°·Low 75°·Rain 11%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Thunderstorm
Today 92°·Low 78°·Rain 82%
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Victoria weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Victoria…

Victoria weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Victoria swings 50°F across the year, from 98°F highs in August to 48°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 37 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
98°F average high
Coldest month
January
48°F average low
Wettest month
May
37 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
68,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Victoria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Victoria hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Victoria 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
92° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
96° 74°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
96° 74°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
96° 77°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 77°
models agree
Wed
Showers
96° 77°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
95° 77°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
95° 75°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
95° 74°
±6°
Sun
Light drizzle
95° 75°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
94° 75°
±6°
Tue
Showers
93° 74°
±9°
Wed
Clear
93° 71°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
92° 68°
models agree

Victoria, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 98°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 48°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Victoria right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Victoria climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
66°
48°
Feb
71°
53°
Mar
76°
61°
Apr
81°
64°
May
87°
72°
Jun
94°
78°
Jul
95°
78°
Aug
98°
79°
Sep
93°
76°
Oct
86°
68°
Nov
76°
59°
Dec
70°
53°

Which forecast is most accurate in Victoria?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±0.8 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F92±2.4 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°92° to 93°±71%11% to 82% chance
Tomorrow±4°94° to 98°±21%4% to 25% chance
Sun±3°95° to 97°±42%7% to 49% chance
Mon±3°95° to 98°±52%15% to 67% chance
Tue±4°96° to 99°±64%14% to 78% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Victoria

today, local time
Sunrise
07:14
Sunset
19:29
Daylight
12h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Victoria today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Victoria today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Victoria today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Victoria and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Victoria?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Victoria (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Victoria?
August is typically the warmest month in Victoria, with average highs around 98°F.
How cold does Victoria get?
The coldest month in Victoria is January, when overnight lows average about 48°F.
How much rain does Victoria get?
Victoria sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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