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CheckWeather AULilydale
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Lilydale weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 24° in Lilydale today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 25°, with a 15% chance of rain.

24°12°
25°12°
15°
18°
22°
25°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 14°·Rain 37%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
Today 25°·Low ·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
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Lilydale weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Lilydale swings 22°C across the year, from 27°C highs in January to 5°C lows in July, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 943 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
27°C average high
Coldest month
July
5°C average low
Wettest month
April
943 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, May and August
Residents
17,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Lilydale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lilydale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lilydale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
24° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
25° 12°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
15°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
18°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
22°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
25°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
27° 16°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
27° 14°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
27° 11°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
26° 15°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
20° 11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19°
±10°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 11°
±8°

Lilydale, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 943 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Lilydale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Lilydale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
27°
14°
Feb
26°
13°
Mar
24°
12°
Apr
19°
May
16°
Jun
13°
Jul
13°
Aug
16°
Sep
18°
Oct
19°
Nov
23°
11°
Dec
25°
13°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lilydale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±1.1 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C92±4.2 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
78
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C96±1.8 km/t5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°23° to 25°±37%0% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±3°24° to 27°±15%0% to 15% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±19%48% to 67% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±1°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lilydale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:12
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lilydale today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Lilydale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lilydale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Lilydale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lilydale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lilydale (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lilydale?
January is typically the warmest month in Lilydale, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Lilydale get?
The coldest month in Lilydale is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Lilydale get?
Lilydale sees roughly 943 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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