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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Duncan weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Duncan's high today between 21° and 24°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 22°, with a 0% chance of rain.

22°
22°10°
22°10°
23°11°
21°10°
20°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±2°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°
Env. CanadaGEM model
21°
Clear
Today 21°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Cloudy
Today 24°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Duncan weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Duncan swings 25°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to 1°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1424 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 41 days a year at 25°C or above, 9 of them at 30°C or above, 56 frost nights, and rain on 154 days.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
December
1424 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
22,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Env. Canada
88/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
41 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
56 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
154 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Duncan’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Duncan and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Duncan hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Duncan 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
22°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
22° 10°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
22° 10°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
23° 11°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
20°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
17°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
19°
±5°
Sun
Partly cloudy
19°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
21° 11°
±10°
Tue
Light rain
18° 11°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
17°
±5°

Duncan, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1424 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Duncan right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Duncan climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
19°
Jun
21°
10°
Jul
26°
13°
Aug
25°
14°
Sep
21°
10°
Oct
14°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Duncan?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
82±1.0°C97±1.6 km/t8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
85
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C97±1.4 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
65±1.9°C95±2.6 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°21° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±2°21° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°21° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°21° to 22°±6%0% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Duncan

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Duncan today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Duncan today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Duncan today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Duncan and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Duncan?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Duncan (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the European at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Duncan?
July is typically the warmest month in Duncan, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Duncan get?
The coldest month in Duncan is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Duncan get?
Duncan sees roughly 1424 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather