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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Oamaru weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Oamaru's high today between 18° and 20°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 12°, with a 100% chance of rain.

19°
12°
19°
15°
12°
15°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±2°
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Drizzle
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 96%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Showers
Today 20°·Low ·Rain 75%
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Oamaru weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Oamaru swings 20°C across the year, from 22°C highs in February to 2°C lows in August, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 801 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
22°C average high
Coldest month
August
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
801 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Oamaru and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Oamaru hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Oamaru 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
12°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
19°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
15°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
12°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
15°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
13°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
18°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
12°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
17°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
20°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
models agree

Oamaru, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 2°C), with roughly 801 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Oamaru right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Oamaru climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
12°
Feb
22°
12°
Mar
18°
Apr
17°
May
13°
Jun
11°
Jul
11°
Aug
12°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
17°
Dec
19°
11°

Which forecast is most accurate in Oamaru?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C94±3.1 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
86
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C92±4.1 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C87±6.3 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 20°±22%74% to 96% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree12° to 12°±72%28% to 100% chance
Mon±3°18° to 21°±46%51% to 97% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±6%92% to 98% chance
Wed±2°10° to 13°±53%23% to 76% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oamaru

today, local time
Sunrise
06:31
Sunset
18:28
Daylight
11h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oamaru today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Oamaru today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oamaru today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Oamaru and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oamaru?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oamaru (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oamaru?
February is typically the warmest month in Oamaru, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Oamaru get?
The coldest month in Oamaru is August, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Oamaru get?
Oamaru sees roughly 801 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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