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CheckWeather USAlafaya
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°F

Alafaya weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Alafaya's high today between 85° and 90°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks showers around 85°, with a 100% chance of rain.

87°74°
85°73°
86°73°
88°73°
89°74°
88°74°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
87°
Showers
Today 87°·Low 76°·Rain 25%
AmericanNOAA GFS
90°
Cloudy
Today 90°·Low 74°·Rain 25%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Heavy drizzle
Today 85°·Low 72°·Rain 98%
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Alafaya weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Alafaya…

Alafaya weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Alafaya swings 38°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 53°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 66 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
53°F average low
Wettest month
June
66 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, November and December
Residents
78,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Alafaya and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Alafaya hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Alafaya 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
87° 74°
±4°
Tomorrow
Showers
85° 73°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
86° 73°
models agree
Mon
Showers
88° 73°
±5°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
89° 74°
±9°
Wed
Drizzle
88° 74°
±7°
Thu
Drizzle
88° 74°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
87° 74°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
86° 74°
±6°
Sun
Drizzle
86° 72°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
86° 72°
±9°
Tue
Thunderstorm
87° 71°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
84° 73°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
78° 73°
models agree

Alafaya, Florida (FL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 53°F), with roughly 66 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Alafaya right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Alafaya climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
71°
53°
Feb
76°
55°
Mar
80°
61°
Apr
82°
63°
May
87°
68°
Jun
89°
72°
Jul
91°
75°
Aug
91°
76°
Sep
87°
73°
Oct
82°
68°
Nov
77°
62°
Dec
71°
56°

Which forecast is most accurate in Alafaya?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
39
/100rank #2
33±6.7°F84±4.9 mph1352% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°85° to 90°±73%25% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±3°83° to 86°±68%32% to 100% chance
Sun±3°85° to 88°±29%61% to 90% chance
Mon±5°86° to 91°±25%75% to 100% chance
Tue±9°86° to 95°±13%82% to 95% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alafaya

today, local time
Sunrise
07:11
Sunset
19:26
Daylight
12h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alafaya today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Alafaya today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Alafaya today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Alafaya and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alafaya?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alafaya (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 39. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alafaya?
July is typically the warmest month in Alafaya, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Alafaya get?
The coldest month in Alafaya is January, when overnight lows average about 53°F.
How much rain does Alafaya get?
Alafaya sees roughly 66 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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