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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Gainesville weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 88° in Gainesville today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 89°, with a 94% chance of rain.

88°71°
89°71°
90°72°
90°72°
90°73°
89°73°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Drizzle
Today 89°·Low 72°·Rain 16%
AmericanNOAA GFS
89°
Cloudy
Today 89°·Low 71°·Rain 16%
EuropeanECMWF
87°
Light drizzle
Today 87°·Low 71°·Rain 54%
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Gainesville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Gainesville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Gainesville swings 45°F across the year, from 92°F highs in July to 47°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 44 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
92°F average high
Coldest month
January
47°F average low
Wettest month
August
44 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
145,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Gainesville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Gainesville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Gainesville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
88° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
89° 71°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
90° 72°
±6°
Mon
Showers
90° 72°
±7°
Tue
Showers
90° 73°
±7°
Wed
Drizzle
89° 73°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
87° 72°
±6°
Fri
Drizzle
89° 71°
±10°
Sat
Drizzle
87° 71°
±10°
Sun
Drizzle
86° 69°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
87° 68°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
89° 70°
±5°
Wed
Thunderstorm
87° 71°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
78° 71°
±7°

Gainesville, Florida (FL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 92°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 47°F), with roughly 44 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Gainesville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Gainesville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
68°
47°
Feb
72°
51°
Mar
77°
57°
Apr
83°
60°
May
87°
66°
Jun
91°
72°
Jul
92°
75°
Aug
92°
75°
Sep
88°
71°
Oct
81°
63°
Nov
75°
57°
Dec
68°
50°

Which forecast is most accurate in Gainesville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F95±1.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
59
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F91±3.0 mph1352% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°87° to 89°±38%16% to 54% chance
Tomorrow±2°88° to 90°±79%15% to 94% chance
Sun±6°88° to 93°±42%46% to 88% chance
Mon±7°87° to 94°±16%71% to 87% chance
Tue±7°87° to 94°±27%67% to 94% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Gainesville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:15
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Gainesville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Gainesville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Gainesville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Gainesville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Gainesville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Gainesville (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 59. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Gainesville?
July is typically the warmest month in Gainesville, with average highs around 92°F.
How cold does Gainesville get?
The coldest month in Gainesville is January, when overnight lows average about 47°F.
How much rain does Gainesville get?
Gainesville sees roughly 44 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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