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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Lenexa weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in Lenexa today. Tomorrow looks showers around 95°, with a 63% chance of rain.

95°75°
95°76°
80°68°
69°63°
69°58°
71°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
94°
Mostly clear
Today 94°·Low 75°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Cloudy
Today 96°·Low 74°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Light drizzle
Today 94°·Low 75°·Rain 57%
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Lenexa weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lenexa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lenexa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lenexa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
95° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
95° 76°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
80° 68°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
69° 63°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
69° 58°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 53°
±7°
Thu
Partly cloudy
69° 57°
±11°
Fri
Drizzle
69° 59°
±14°
Sat
Cloudy
76° 60°
±9°
Sun
Light rain
78° 62°
±15°
Mon
Light rain
73° 59°
±17°
Tue
Mostly clear
70° 53°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
74° 51°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
84° 60°
models agree

Lenexa is a town of about 52,000 people in Kansas (KS), sitting at 39.0°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Lenexa with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Overland Park, Merriam, Prairie Village.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Lenexa?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F94±2.0 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°94° to 96°±55%2% to 57% chance
Tomorrow±3°94° to 96°±41%22% to 63% chance
Sun±1°80° to 81°±41%58% to 99% chance
Mon±2°68° to 70°±12%58% to 70% chance
Tue±8°67° to 74°models agree5% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lenexa

today, local time
Sunrise
07:03
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lenexa today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lenexa today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lenexa today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lenexa and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lenexa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lenexa (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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