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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Olathe weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in Olathe today. Tomorrow looks showers around 95°, with a 63% chance of rain.

95°75°
95°76°
81°68°
69°63°
70°58°
71°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
94°
Mostly clear
Today 94°·Low 74°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Cloudy
Today 96°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Light drizzle
Today 94°·Low 75°·Rain 57%
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Olathe weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Olathe weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Olathe swings 65°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 23°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 40 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
23°F average low
Wettest month
July
40 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
134,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Olathe and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Olathe hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Olathe 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
95° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
95° 76°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
81° 68°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
69° 63°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
70° 58°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 53°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
69° 57°
±12°
Fri
Light drizzle
70° 59°
±13°
Sat
Cloudy
76° 60°
±9°
Sun
Light rain
78° 62°
±15°
Mon
Light rain
73° 58°
±18°
Tue
Mostly clear
69° 52°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
74° 51°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
84° 60°
models agree

Olathe, Kansas (KS) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 23°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Olathe right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Olathe climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
39°
23°
Feb
52°
31°
Mar
56°
37°
Apr
68°
47°
May
77°
57°
Jun
87°
67°
Jul
88°
70°
Aug
87°
69°
Sep
82°
62°
Oct
71°
52°
Nov
55°
40°
Dec
46°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Olathe?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F96±1.4 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
76
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F95±1.5 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°94° to 96°±56%1% to 57% chance
Tomorrow±4°94° to 97°±41%22% to 63% chance
Sun±1°80° to 81°±39%60% to 99% chance
Mon±3°68° to 70°±10%60% to 70% chance
Tue±7°67° to 74°±1%4% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Olathe

today, local time
Sunrise
07:03
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Olathe today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Olathe today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Olathe today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Olathe and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Olathe?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Olathe (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Olathe?
July is typically the warmest month in Olathe, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Olathe get?
The coldest month in Olathe is January, when overnight lows average about 23°F.
How much rain does Olathe get?
Olathe sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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