Skip to main content
One weather site to rule them all
checkweather.io
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Mesa weather

Loading live data…

Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 100° in Mesa today. Tomorrow looks clear around 101°, with a 0% chance of rain.

100°77°
101°76°
100°75°
99°81°
99°81°
99°81°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
101°
Clear
Today 101°·Low 79°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
100°
Clear
Today 100°·Low 76°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Clear
Today 100°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.

Mesa weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Mesa…

Mesa weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mesa swings 68°F across the year, from 110°F highs in July to 42°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
110°F average high
Coldest month
January
42°F average low
Wettest month
January
9 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
472,000
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Mesa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Mesa in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Mesa, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Mesa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Mesa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
100° 77°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
101° 76°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
100° 75°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
99° 81°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
99° 81°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
99° 81°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
99° 83°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
98° 82°
±9°
Sat
Light drizzle
100° 82°
±11°
Sun
Drizzle
102° 84°
±6°
Mon
Mostly clear
103° 84°
±8°
Tue
Clear
106° 86°
models agree
Wed
Clear
102° 85°
models agree
Thu
Clear
94° 79°
±14°

Mesa, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 110°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 9 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Mesa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Mesa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
42°
Feb
67°
45°
Mar
71°
49°
Apr
85°
57°
May
94°
68°
Jun
103°
76°
Jul
110°
87°
Aug
106°
84°
Sep
102°
76°
Oct
93°
67°
Nov
76°
53°
Dec
71°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in Mesa?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F96±1.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F92±2.4 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…

One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°100° to 101°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±1°101° to 101°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±2°99° to 101°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°97° to 100°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±2°98° to 100°±6%2% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mesa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:12
Sunset
18:29
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mesa today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Mesa today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Mesa today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Mesa and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mesa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mesa (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mesa?
July is typically the warmest month in Mesa, with average highs around 110°F.
How cold does Mesa get?
The coldest month in Mesa is January, when overnight lows average about 42°F.
How much rain does Mesa get?
Mesa sees roughly 9 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather