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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Scottsdale weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 99° in Scottsdale today. Tomorrow looks clear around 100°, with a 0% chance of rain.

99°77°
100°76°
99°75°
99°82°
98°81°
99°82°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
100°
Clear
Today 100°·Low 76°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Clear
Today 99°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
99°
Clear
Today 99°·Low 79°·Rain 2%
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Scottsdale weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Scottsdale weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Scottsdale swings 68°F across the year, from 110°F highs in July to 42°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 10 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
110°F average high
Coldest month
January
42°F average low
Wettest month
January
10 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
237,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Scottsdale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Scottsdale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Scottsdale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
99° 77°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
100° 76°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
99° 75°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
99° 82°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
98° 81°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
99° 82°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
99° 82°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
98° 82°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
100° 82°
±9°
Sun
Drizzle
102° 84°
±6°
Mon
Mostly clear
102° 85°
±8°
Tue
Clear
105° 87°
models agree
Wed
Clear
100° 87°
models agree
Thu
Clear
94° 81°
±14°

Scottsdale, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 110°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 10 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Scottsdale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Scottsdale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
42°
Feb
67°
45°
Mar
71°
48°
Apr
85°
58°
May
94°
68°
Jun
103°
78°
Jul
110°
88°
Aug
106°
85°
Sep
102°
77°
Oct
93°
66°
Nov
75°
52°
Dec
70°
47°

Which forecast is most accurate in Scottsdale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±1.0 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F90±3.2 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°99° to 100°±1%1% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±1°100° to 101°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±3°98° to 100°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°97° to 100°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±2°97° to 99°±4%4% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Scottsdale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:29
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Scottsdale today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Scottsdale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Scottsdale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Scottsdale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Scottsdale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Scottsdale (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Scottsdale?
July is typically the warmest month in Scottsdale, with average highs around 110°F.
How cold does Scottsdale get?
The coldest month in Scottsdale is January, when overnight lows average about 42°F.
How much rain does Scottsdale get?
Scottsdale sees roughly 10 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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