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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Murrieta weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 83° in Murrieta today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 85°, with a 0% chance of rain.

83°58°
85°58°
84°60°
80°60°
85°59°
90°63°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Mostly clear
Today 82°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Cloudy
Today 84°·Low 57°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Cloudy
Today 82°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
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Murrieta weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Murrieta weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Murrieta swings 53°F across the year, from 96°F highs in July to 43°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 23 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
96°F average high
Coldest month
January
43°F average low
Wettest month
January
23 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and May
Residents
110,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Murrieta and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Murrieta hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Murrieta 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
83° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
85° 58°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
84° 60°
±6°
Mon
Partly cloudy
80° 60°
±5°
Tue
Clear
85° 59°
±6°
Wed
Clear
90° 63°
models agree
Thu
Clear
90° 65°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
89° 65°
±19°
Sat
Mostly clear
91° 66°
±20°
Sun
Light drizzle
93° 70°
±18°
Mon
Mostly clear
94° 71°
±22°
Tue
Cloudy
97° 72°
±6°
Wed
Clear
82° 66°
±13°
Thu
Clear
78° 63°
±7°

Murrieta, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 96°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 43°F), with roughly 23 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Murrieta right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Murrieta climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
43°
Feb
61°
43°
Mar
62°
45°
Apr
72°
49°
May
75°
53°
Jun
83°
59°
Jul
96°
68°
Aug
93°
67°
Sep
88°
63°
Oct
86°
59°
Nov
73°
48°
Dec
70°
46°

Which forecast is most accurate in Murrieta?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
82±1.8°F96±1.3 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F93±2.3 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°82° to 84°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°84° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±6°81° to 87°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±5°77° to 82°±6%2% to 8% chance
Tue±6°82° to 88°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Murrieta

today, local time
Sunrise
06:34
Sunset
18:50
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Murrieta today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Murrieta today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Murrieta today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Murrieta and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Murrieta?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Murrieta (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Murrieta?
July is typically the warmest month in Murrieta, with average highs around 96°F.
How cold does Murrieta get?
The coldest month in Murrieta is January, when overnight lows average about 43°F.
How much rain does Murrieta get?
Murrieta sees roughly 23 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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