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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Temecula weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Temecula today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 84°, with a 0% chance of rain.

82°58°
84°58°
83°60°
79°60°
83°59°
88°62°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Mostly clear
Today 80°·Low 60°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 56°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
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Temecula weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Temecula…

Temecula weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Temecula swings 49°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 42°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 26 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
42°F average low
Wettest month
January
26 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and May
Residents
110,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Temecula and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Temecula hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Temecula 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
82° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
84° 58°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
83° 60°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
79° 60°
models agree
Tue
Clear
83° 59°
±4°
Wed
Clear
88° 62°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
88° 64°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
88° 65°
±15°
Sat
Mostly clear
89° 65°
±17°
Sun
Light drizzle
92° 69°
±17°
Mon
Mostly clear
93° 70°
±21°
Tue
Cloudy
96° 72°
models agree
Wed
Clear
81° 66°
±17°
Thu
Clear
77° 64°
±8°

Temecula, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 26 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Temecula right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Temecula climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
42°
Feb
60°
43°
Mar
61°
44°
Apr
70°
48°
May
73°
52°
Jun
80°
57°
Jul
91°
64°
Aug
91°
65°
Sep
86°
62°
Oct
84°
57°
Nov
73°
48°
Dec
69°
46°

Which forecast is most accurate in Temecula?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F94±2.0 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F90±3.0 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°80° to 83°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±3°83° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±4°80° to 84°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±4°76° to 80°±6%2% to 8% chance
Tue±4°80° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Temecula

today, local time
Sunrise
06:34
Sunset
18:50
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Temecula today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Temecula today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Temecula today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Temecula and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Temecula?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Temecula (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Temecula?
July is typically the warmest month in Temecula, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Temecula get?
The coldest month in Temecula is January, when overnight lows average about 42°F.
How much rain does Temecula get?
Temecula sees roughly 26 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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