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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

New Rochelle weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 80° in New Rochelle today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 69°, with a 1% chance of rain.

80°68°
69°58°
68°61°
69°58°
62°54°
63°52°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 68°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
82°
Cloudy
Today 82°·Low 68°·Rain 6%
EuropeanECMWF
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 67°·Rain 54%
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New Rochelle weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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New Rochelle weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

New Rochelle swings 56°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 29°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 54 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
February
29°F average low
Wettest month
March
54 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
80,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around New Rochelle and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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New Rochelle hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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New Rochelle 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
80° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
69° 58°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
68° 61°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
69° 58°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
62° 54°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
63° 52°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
62° 53°
±7°
Fri
Drizzle
62° 53°
±6°
Sat
Partly cloudy
68° 55°
±10°
Sun
Light drizzle
70° 55°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 57°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
73° 60°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
78° 62°
models agree
Thu
Rain
70° 56°
±7°

New Rochelle, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 29°F), with roughly 54 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for New Rochelle right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

New Rochelle climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
31°
Feb
45°
29°
Mar
51°
35°
Apr
62°
44°
May
71°
52°
Jun
80°
61°
Jul
85°
68°
Aug
81°
65°
Sep
75°
59°
Oct
67°
50°
Nov
54°
39°
Dec
45°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in New Rochelle?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.0 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F92±2.4 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°79° to 82°±48%6% to 54% chance
Tomorrow±1°68° to 69°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±4°67° to 71°±9%83% to 92% chance
Mon±4°66° to 70°models agree74% to 74% chance
Tue±3°60° to 64°±16%6% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in New Rochelle

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
18:59
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in New Rochelle today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for New Rochelle today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in New Rochelle today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for New Rochelle and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for New Rochelle?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for New Rochelle (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in New Rochelle?
July is typically the warmest month in New Rochelle, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does New Rochelle get?
The coldest month in New Rochelle is February, when overnight lows average about 29°F.
How much rain does New Rochelle get?
New Rochelle sees roughly 54 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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