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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 7°F

Provo weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Provo's high today between 76° and 83°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 72°, with a 73% chance of rain.

79°60°
72°55°
74°52°
79°55°
76°58°
78°55°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Light rain
Today 76°·Low 60°·Rain 45%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 61°·Rain 45%
EuropeanECMWF
76°
Heavy drizzle
Today 76°·Low 58°·Rain 99%
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Provo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Provo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Provo swings 70°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 21°F lows in February, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 24 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
February
21°F average low
Wettest month
January
24 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
May and October
Residents
115,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Provo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Provo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Provo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
79° 60°
±7°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
72° 55°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
74° 52°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
79° 55°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
76° 58°
±8°
Wed
Partly cloudy
78° 55°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
82° 57°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
82° 60°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
82° 60°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
81° 60°
±8°
Mon
Clear
77° 59°
±18°
Tue
Partly cloudy
79° 57°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
85° 60°
models agree
Thu
Clear
76° 59°
±17°

Provo, Utah (UT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 21°F), with roughly 24 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Provo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Provo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
36°
23°
Feb
38°
21°
Mar
42°
25°
Apr
53°
34°
May
67°
43°
Jun
80°
56°
Jul
91°
64°
Aug
86°
62°
Sep
79°
54°
Oct
66°
44°
Nov
47°
28°
Dec
42°
23°

Which forecast is most accurate in Provo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
78
/100rank #1
70±3.0°F94±2.0 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
52±4.8°F84±5.1 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°76° to 83°±54%45% to 99% chance
Tomorrow±3°70° to 73°±63%10% to 73% chance
Sun±3°73° to 75°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±4°76° to 80°±1%2% to 3% chance
Tue±8°71° to 79°±49%34% to 83% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Provo

today, local time
Sunrise
07:10
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Provo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Provo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Provo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Provo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Provo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Provo (CheckWeather Score 78/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Provo?
July is typically the warmest month in Provo, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Provo get?
The coldest month in Provo is February, when overnight lows average about 21°F.
How much rain does Provo get?
Provo sees roughly 24 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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