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CheckWeather USRancho Santa Margarita
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 7°F

Rancho Santa Margarita weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Rancho Santa Margarita's high today between 77° and 84°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 83°, with a 0% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

81°60°
83°60°
82°63°
78°63°
82°62°
89°66°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowsplit ±9°Sundaysplit ±11°Mondaysplit ±9°Tuesdaysplit ±11°Wednesdaysplit ±15°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
77°
Mostly clear
Today 77°·Low 60°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 59°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
84°
Mostly clear
Today 84°·Low 63°·Rain 0%
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Rancho Santa Margarita weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Rancho Santa Margarita…

Rancho Santa Margarita weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rancho Santa Margarita swings 44°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 45°F lows in February, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 28 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
February
45°F average low
Wettest month
February
28 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
49,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Rancho Santa Margarita and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rancho Santa Margarita hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rancho Santa Margarita 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
81° 60°
±7°
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
83° 60°
±9°
Sun
Cloudy
82° 63°
±11°
Mon
Partly cloudy
78° 63°
±9°
Tue
Clear
82° 62°
±11°
Wed
Clear
89° 66°
±15°
Thu
Clear
89° 69°
±11°
Fri
Clear
88° 69°
±5°
Sat
Mostly clear
88° 69°
±13°
Sun
Cloudy
91° 72°
±16°
Mon
Mostly clear
92° 74°
±19°
Tue
Cloudy
95° 79°
±5°
Wed
Clear
86° 68°
±13°
Thu
Clear
81° 66°
±11°

Rancho Santa Margarita, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 45°F), with roughly 28 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Rancho Santa Margarita right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Rancho Santa Margarita climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
46°
Feb
60°
45°
Mar
60°
46°
Apr
68°
50°
May
71°
53°
Jun
78°
59°
Jul
89°
69°
Aug
88°
68°
Sep
84°
64°
Oct
82°
62°
Nov
72°
53°
Dec
69°
51°

Which forecast is most accurate in Rancho Santa Margarita?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.3 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
75
/100rank #2
40±6.0°F95±1.4 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°77° to 84°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±9°80° to 88°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±11°77° to 88°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±9°74° to 83°±4%2% to 6% chance
Tue±11°77° to 87°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rancho Santa Margarita

today, local time
Sunrise
06:35
Sunset
18:52
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rancho Santa Margarita today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Rancho Santa Margarita today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rancho Santa Margarita today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Rancho Santa Margarita and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rancho Santa Margarita?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Rancho Santa Margarita (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the European at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rancho Santa Margarita?
July is typically the warmest month in Rancho Santa Margarita, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Rancho Santa Margarita get?
The coldest month in Rancho Santa Margarita is February, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does Rancho Santa Margarita get?
Rancho Santa Margarita sees roughly 28 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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