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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

San Tan Valley weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 97° in San Tan Valley today. Tomorrow looks clear around 99°, with a 1% chance of rain.

97°74°
99°73°
97°72°
97°78°
97°76°
97°80°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Clear
Today 98°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Partly cloudy
Today 98°·Low 73°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Mostly clear
Today 97°·Low 74°·Rain 6%
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San Tan Valley weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering San Tan Valley…

San Tan Valley weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

San Tan Valley swings 68°F across the year, from 109°F highs in July to 41°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 11 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
109°F average high
Coldest month
January
41°F average low
Wettest month
January
11 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
81,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around San Tan Valley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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San Tan Valley hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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San Tan Valley 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
97° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
99° 73°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
97° 72°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
97° 78°
±4°
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 76°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
97° 80°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
97° 79°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
96° 80°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
98° 81°
±9°
Sun
Drizzle
100° 81°
±7°
Mon
Partly cloudy
101° 81°
±9°
Tue
Clear
105° 82°
models agree
Wed
Clear
100° 83°
models agree
Thu
Clear
95° 78°
±12°

San Tan Valley, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 109°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 11 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for San Tan Valley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

San Tan Valley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
41°
Feb
65°
44°
Mar
70°
47°
Apr
84°
55°
May
93°
66°
Jun
102°
75°
Jul
109°
85°
Aug
104°
82°
Sep
101°
76°
Oct
92°
65°
Nov
74°
50°
Dec
70°
45°

Which forecast is most accurate in San Tan Valley?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F95±1.5 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
76
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F87±4.1 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°97° to 98°±5%1% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±2°98° to 100°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±3°96° to 99°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°96° to 100°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°95° to 99°±4%2% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in San Tan Valley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:11
Sunset
18:28
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in San Tan Valley today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for San Tan Valley today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in San Tan Valley today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for San Tan Valley and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for San Tan Valley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for San Tan Valley (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in San Tan Valley?
July is typically the warmest month in San Tan Valley, with average highs around 109°F.
How cold does San Tan Valley get?
The coldest month in San Tan Valley is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does San Tan Valley get?
San Tan Valley sees roughly 11 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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