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CheckWeather NZCarterton
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Carterton weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Carterton today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 13°, with a 97% chance of rain.

18°
13°
16°
15°
13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Drizzle
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Cloudy
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 48%
GermanDWD ICON
18°
Light rain
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 3%
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Carterton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Carterton swings 18°C across the year, from 22°C highs in January to 4°C lows in August, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1397 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
22°C average high
Coldest month
August
4°C average low
Wettest month
January
1397 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Carterton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Carterton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Carterton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
18°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
16°
±4°
Tue
Rain
15°
±4°
Wed
Drizzle
models agree
Thu
Clear
13°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
14°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
16°
±3°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
10°
±4°
Tue
Partly cloudy
15°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
17°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±3°

Carterton, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1397 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Carterton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Carterton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
13°
Feb
21°
13°
Mar
19°
10°
Apr
18°
10°
May
15°
Jun
13°
Jul
12°
Aug
12°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
18°
Dec
21°
12°

Which forecast is most accurate in Carterton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C96±1.9 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C89±5.6 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
79
/100rank #3
75±1.4°C91±4.6 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°17° to 18°±97%3% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°13° to 14°±14%83% to 97% chance
Mon±4°15° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°13° to 17°±25%75% to 100% chance
Wed±2°9° to 10°±47%45% to 92% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Carterton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:11
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Carterton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Carterton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Carterton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Carterton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Carterton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Carterton (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Carterton?
January is typically the warmest month in Carterton, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Carterton get?
The coldest month in Carterton is August, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Carterton get?
Carterton sees roughly 1397 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

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