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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Otaki weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 14° in Otaki today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain.

14°
13°
13°
14°
11°
12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Light drizzle
Today 14°·Low ·Rain 69%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Showers
Today 14°·Low ·Rain 45%
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Otaki weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Otaki swings 15°C across the year, from 22°C highs in January to 7°C lows in July, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 2003 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
August
2003 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
6,086
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Otaki and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Otaki hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Otaki 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
13°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
14°
models agree
Sun
Snow
14°
models agree
Mon
Snow
10°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
14° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
models agree

Otaki, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 2003 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Otaki right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Otaki climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
15°
Feb
21°
15°
Mar
19°
12°
Apr
18°
11°
May
16°
10°
Jun
14°
Jul
13°
Aug
13°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
10°
Nov
17°
11°
Dec
20°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Otaki?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
G
German ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C88±5.8 km/t7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
74
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C91±4.7 km/t4771% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C93±3.5 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°±55%45% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°13° to 14°±42%58% to 100% chance
Mon±1°12° to 13°±96%3% to 99% chance
Tue±2°13° to 15°±32%66% to 98% chance
Wed±1°10° to 11°±50%23% to 73% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Otaki

today, local time
Sunrise
06:14
Sunset
18:12
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Otaki today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Otaki today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Otaki today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Otaki and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Otaki?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Otaki (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the European at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Otaki?
January is typically the warmest month in Otaki, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Otaki get?
The coldest month in Otaki is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Otaki get?
Otaki sees roughly 2003 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

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