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CheckWeather USAliso Viejo
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Aliso Viejo weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Aliso Viejo's high today between 74° and 80°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 78°, with a 2% chance of rain.

77°62°
78°61°
78°63°
75°64°
77°63°
81°65°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±8°Sundaysplit ±9°Mondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
74°
Partly cloudy
Today 74°·Low 62°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Cloudy
Today 76°·Low 61°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 62°·Rain 0%
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Aliso Viejo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Aliso Viejo…

Aliso Viejo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Aliso Viejo swings 38°F across the year, from 83°F highs in August to 45°F lows in February, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 27 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
83°F average high
Coldest month
February
45°F average low
Wettest month
February
27 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
50,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Aliso Viejo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Aliso Viejo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Aliso Viejo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
77° 62°
±6°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
78° 61°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
78° 63°
±9°
Mon
Partly cloudy
75° 64°
±8°
Tue
Partly cloudy
77° 63°
±8°
Wed
Mostly clear
81° 65°
±9°
Thu
Clear
81° 66°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
82° 67°
±10°
Sat
Partly cloudy
85° 68°
±15°
Sun
Light drizzle
89° 71°
±18°
Mon
Mostly clear
88° 73°
±18°
Tue
Cloudy
90° 75°
models agree
Wed
Clear
81° 67°
±6°
Thu
Clear
76° 65°
±9°

Aliso Viejo, California (CA) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 45°F), with roughly 27 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Aliso Viejo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Aliso Viejo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
46°
Feb
61°
45°
Mar
61°
47°
Apr
67°
50°
May
68°
53°
Jun
74°
57°
Jul
82°
62°
Aug
83°
64°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
80°
58°
Nov
72°
51°
Dec
67°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in Aliso Viejo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F92±2.5 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
83
/100rank #2
60±4.0°F97±0.8 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°74° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±8°75° to 83°±2%0% to 2% chance
Sun±9°74° to 82°±1%1% to 2% chance
Mon±8°72° to 79°±4%2% to 6% chance
Tue±8°73° to 81°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aliso Viejo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:52
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aliso Viejo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Aliso Viejo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Aliso Viejo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Aliso Viejo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aliso Viejo?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Aliso Viejo (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aliso Viejo?
August is typically the warmest month in Aliso Viejo, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Aliso Viejo get?
The coldest month in Aliso Viejo is February, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does Aliso Viejo get?
Aliso Viejo sees roughly 27 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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