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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Memphis weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 98° in Memphis today. Tomorrow looks clear around 99°, with a 1% chance of rain.

98°74°
99°75°
100°76°
98°78°
87°71°
84°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Clear
Today 99°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Partly cloudy
Today 98°·Low 73°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
98°
Mostly clear
Today 98°·Low 74°·Rain 0%
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Memphis weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Memphis weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Memphis swings 55°F across the year, from 90°F highs in August to 35°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 58 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
35°F average low
Wettest month
January
58 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
633,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Memphis and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Memphis hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Memphis 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
98° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
99° 75°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
100° 76°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
98° 78°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
87° 71°
±5°
Wed
Mostly clear
84° 66°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
83° 64°
±8°
Fri
Mostly clear
83° 64°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
84° 65°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
87° 65°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
88° 63°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
80° 61°
±15°
Wed
Partly cloudy
79° 59°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
84° 59°
±6°

Memphis, Tennessee (TN) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 35°F), with roughly 58 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Memphis right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Memphis climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
50°
35°
Feb
60°
41°
Mar
64°
46°
Apr
71°
53°
May
82°
63°
Jun
89°
69°
Jul
89°
73°
Aug
90°
73°
Sep
84°
66°
Oct
76°
57°
Nov
64°
48°
Dec
55°
40°

Which forecast is most accurate in Memphis?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F98±0.7 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
66
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F94±1.8 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°98° to 99°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°98° to 99°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±4°99° to 102°±5%1% to 6% chance
Mon±7°95° to 102°models agree29% to 29% chance
Tue±5°84° to 89°±15%14% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Memphis

today, local time
Sunrise
06:45
Sunset
19:02
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Memphis today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Memphis today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Memphis today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Memphis and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Memphis?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Memphis (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 66. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Memphis?
August is typically the warmest month in Memphis, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Memphis get?
The coldest month in Memphis is January, when overnight lows average about 35°F.
How much rain does Memphis get?
Memphis sees roughly 58 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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